Estimation Games
About Estimation Games
Estimation games test the judgement you use every day without noticing: how many, how long, how much, how far. There is no time to count and nothing to measure with, so you look, decide and commit. Then the game shows you the true answer and exactly how far off you were, and you find out how good your eye and your inner clock really are. Every game here is free in your browser and a run takes a minute or two.
How Many is the jar at the county fair: a jar of jelly beans, a gumball machine, a flock of sheep or thousands of starlings show for a few seconds, and you guess the count. Scoring is by ratio, so guessing twice too many is exactly as bad as guessing half. Darkroom is a time estimation game under a red safelight: pull each photo out of the developer at the second on its ticket, from three seconds up to ten, with no clock on screen, while a wall clock that runs fast and a song slightly off the beat try to throw your count.
Halfway asks for one straight cut that splits a paper shape into exact halves, thirds, quarters or tenths, across 755 shapes from a croissant to the boot of Italy, new ones every run, and shows the shares of the area to a tenth of a percent. Pin Drop is estimation on a world map with no labels, only coastlines and faint country borders: drop a pin where Paris or Lake Baikal should be and see how many kilometres off you were. How Many, Darkroom and Pin Drop each deal the same rounds to everyone every day, so you can also see how your guesses compare with everyone else's.
How to estimate better
Break a big judgement into small ones. To count a crowd, count a patch of about ten and multiply by how many patches fill the scene. To keep time, count in a steady rhythm of about one second per number, such as "one-Mississippi", and start the moment the clock starts. To cut a shape in half, remember that the half line of a lopsided shape sits closer to its bulky end than the outline suggests. To place a city, decide which part of the country it is in before you tap. And trust the feedback: every one of these games shows you exactly how far off you were, which is the quickest way to calibrate.
Frequently asked questions
What is an estimation game?
A game where you judge a quantity without measuring it, such as a count, a length of time, an area or a distance, and score by how close you come. Practising them is a good way to calibrate your own judgement.
How many jelly beans are in the jar?
In How Many the answer changes every day: the jars, flocks and crowds run from about thirty items up to several thousand. Count a small patch, multiply by how many such patches fill the scene, then trim a little for the curved edges of a jar.
Are these games daily?
Three of them are. How Many, Darkroom and Pin Drop each have a daily run that is the same for every player and changes at midnight Eastern Time (New York). Halfway is not a daily: it deals new shapes every run, in Five cuts or Endless, so you can play it at any time.
Do estimation games have leaderboards?
Yes. All four have leaderboards, and top scores are verified by replaying them on our servers before they reach the board.